Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
